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SKA South Africa

Artists impression of the MeerKAT array in the Karoo. There has been much debate over who will host the SKA telescope

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• SA in race to host space telescope

A crucial meeting that could be the penultimate step in the decision-making process on where to build the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) radio telescope will take place on Monday.

This is when the board of directors of the SKA Organisation, the parent body of the R14.9 billion project, will discuss a confidential report and recommendation by the SKA Site Advisory Committee on where to build the telescope.

The committee’s report and site recommendation have already been endorsed by the SKA Siting Group (SSG), a six-member body set up specifically to confirm the committee’s investigation and recommendation were duly rigorous.

The board released the report under conditions of strict confidentiality to the two consortia bidding to host the project: SA with its eight African partners, and Australia and New Zealand.

But that confidentiality was broken, and last week the Australian media ran stories based on a leak saying the recommended site was Africa. This was subsequently “confirmed” by a source of the UK scientific journal Nature.

According to Associated Press, Science minister Chris Evans told the National Press Club (of Australia) last week that “we are still absolutely committed to winning the bid”.

“To be frank, I think the thing that works against us the most is the sympathy for doing more in Africa – the European view which says we ought to be doing more development in Africa and I think that is something that, at a political level, is quite strong.”

His comments seem to confirm the site advisory committee’s recommendation is in favour of Africa, and there’s concern Australia may use Monday’s meeting to launch an all-out attack on its findings and possibly seek to have the recommendation scrapped or sent back for re-evaluation.

But there appears to be no legal basis for such a step, because the decision-making process has been set out very precisely in the company’s Articles of Association, which were formally approved and adopted by all the members – including site bidders SA, Australia and New Zealand – on February 7. The SKA Organisation declined to give the Cape Argus a copy of the articles, but these were subsequently obtained from the British company register.

The articles indicate that the recommendation should go to the scheduled “general meeting” at Schiphol airport in the Netherlands on April 4, where a decision should be taken by the four “neutral” board members of the SKA Organisation – the UK, Netherlands, Italy and China. – Cape Argus

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2012-03-15 16:13

Radio telescope dishes stand on the site of the MeerKAT near Carnarvon in the Northern Cape. (Duncan Alfreds, News24)

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SKA

Duncan Alfreds

Cape Town – South Africa has demonstrated the engineering of the Karoo Array Telescope has resulted in a capable instrument as the country makes the final push to host the Square Kilometre Telescope (SKA) in the Northern Cape province.

Known as the KAT-7, the seven dish array was able to detect radio emission from a nearby galaxy called NGC 3109, which is about 4.3 light years away from Earth, in the constellation Hydra.

Astronomers were able to detect the radio emission from the neutral hydrogen gas in the galaxy as well as the direction it is moving.

“These exciting results achieved by KAT-7 have given us confidence that we know how to build a cutting-edge radio telescope in Africa to answer some of the fundamental questions in radio astronomy”, said Dr Bernie Fanaroff, director of SKA South Africa.

SA and Australia are bidding to host the massive SKA, which will consist of more than 3 000 linked radio telescopes and the KAT-7 was built as an engineering test-bed for the project.

MeerKAT

Even if SA doesn’t win the right to host the SKA, the ministry of science and technology has committed to build the MeerKAT instrument which will consist of 64 dishes.

“MeerKAT gets built, whether we win the SKA or not. If we win the SKA, things will change and we will have to re-plan a bit, but what we did was to align MeerKAT pretty close to the mainstream SKA thinking so that we’ll be in a position to expand MeerKAT into an SKA Phase 1,” MeerKAT project manager Willem Esterhuyse told News24.

Neutral hydrogen is important for the astronomers to understand the distances of galaxies from Earth using the Doppler effect. Where galaxies are moving away from us, the frequency shifts down.

One of the first projects slated for the MeerKAT after its expected completion in 2016 will study neutral hydrogen in great detail.

“We want to go back to about half the age of the universe – about six to eight billion years – and we’ll be able to measure the gas from the most distant galaxies,” astronomer Dr Sarah Blyth told News24 in late 2011.

Blythe will, with Dr Andrew Baker of Rutgers University and Dr Benne Holwerda of the European Space Agency, lead a team of 56 to study the prevalence of neutral hydrogen in the universe. Their research hopes to explain the decline in star formation in galaxies.

“Observations of the neutral hydrogen content of galaxies also help to form a picture of how galaxies have evolved over cosmic time and show how our own galaxy, the spiral galaxy called the Milky Way, has developed,” Fanaroff said.

Recently a scientific review panel has recommended SA as a host country for the SKA, but the final decision is expected in April and the project is expected to cost about €1.5bn.

– Follow Duncan on Twitter
 

SA’s Square Kilometre Array (SKA SA) yesterday appealed to the communication watchdog to ensure the central Karoo was not forgotten in the digital terrestrial television (DTT) migration plan.

SKA SA is concerned that the digital terrestrial TV regulations provide for digital broadcast coverage for 95% of the country, and that the Northern Cape area of the Karoo, where the telescope is situated, may be excluded because of the low population density.

The move to digital was key to the telescope’s performance, SKA SA told the Independent Communications Authority of SA (Icasa) in its submission at hearings on draft regulations this week.

The site is protected by the Astronomy Geographic Advantage Act of 2007, which in effect prohibits all activities that might adversely affect the operation of the radio telescope — including radio and analogue frequencies. The telescope will not be affected by digital frequencies.

SKA SA also asked Icasa for clarity on when the analogue system would be switched off, as the signal affects the telescope. The digital terrestrial TV regulations stipulate the digital signal will be switched on at the end of the 2012-13 financial year, but do not give a date for the analogue switch-off. SKA SA said it was required by the end of 2015.

SKA SA’s radio frequency interference and site characterisation manager, Adrian Tiplady, said after the hearing: “We want to ensure that the interests of the SKA are going to be prioritised and will be expedited.

“The protection regime we’ve established under the Astronomy Geographic Advantage Act is aligned with the time scale for digital migration, and what we are ensuring is that those time scales do not change or slip.”

Meanwhile, MTN has urged the parties involved in broadcasting digital migration to fast-track the process so radio frequency spectrum can be released for the provision of telecoms services.

Digital migration is expected to free up the spectrum the mobile operators anxiously want to provide next-generation high-speed internet services.

MTN said: “Digital migration is foremost about the freeing up of the spectrum….

“In the interest of transparency and certainty, and to ensure an efficient, sustainable and competitive information and communications technology industry, the allocation of the digital dividend (spectrum freed up from the migration) should be clarified, and it should accommodate all industry stakeholders.”

MTN was also critical of proposals to use the universal service and access fund for broadcasting activities to subsidise set-top boxes, saying the communications minister had no legislative powers to use the fund in that manner.

The set-top boxes will be used to receive the digital signal.

MTN said the broadcasting digital migration policy mentioned that alternatives would be sought to provide subsidies, but only the universal service and access fund had been identified.

“MTN is not convinced that the minister has the legislative powers to pronounce that (the fund) should be used for the purposes of subsidising set-top boxes ,” the company said.

It said the money should be used for, among other things, improving broadband access to meet the Department of Communications’ target of 100% broadband connectivity by 2020.

inlsa

Econometrix Senior economist Tony Twine passes on.Photo by Leon Maluleke

Ethel Hazelhurst

Tony Twine, a well-loved and highly respected economist, died on Sunday after a heart attack and a short illness.

His unexpected death has left a large hole in the lives of friends and colleagues, as well as many others in the business community. Among those who paid tribute yesterday was Pravin Gordhan, the Finance Minister.

“Mr Twine made a valuable contribution to the development of policies in several government departments and was part of a team that drafted South Africa’s energy policies, Gordhan said.

“The National Treasury valued his insight on such issues as international ratings agencies, the automobile industry, petroleum markets and various aspects of litigation and competition law economics.

“As an eminent researcher and senior economist at Econometrix, his widely published opinions in international media helped to form positive views of South Africa by investors. Mr Twine contributed much to the post-apartheid economic debate and his input will be missed.”

A director of Econometrix at the time of his death, at the age of 57, Twine joined the consultancy in 1983. He started his career at Mobil Oil Southern Africa in 1976 and later worked at Datsun Nissan.

Among other things, Twine possessed the ability – awe inspiring in a blind man – to hold a room riveted with a PowerPoint presentation.

One measure of his achievement is the surprise expressed by many people on learning that he had been blind from his early 30s as a result of diabetes.

He was blessed with intellectual insights that more than compensated for his physical disabilities, as well as an “excellent” memory, according to his colleague Azar Jammine.

Jammine, who is Econometrix director and chief economist, said Twine was able to immediately absorb figures and other information read to him. And he said Twine’s achievements were an inspiration to people with physical disabilities.

Twine specialised in the motor industry and energy, but was also an expert on other aspects of the economy. And, according to Econometrix, he “contributed to the development of many of the forecasting models which Econometrix has developed. Since 2002, he has supervised and contributed to Econometrix’s Consumer Market Trends product, and has conceived and created several forecasting models and accompanying intelligence packages for big public enterprises.”

An unconventional thinker, Twine’s most recent presentation struck a contentious note.

After carrying out a study, commissioned by Royal Dutch Shell, he concluded that the exploration for shale gas in the Karoo could create permanent and sustainable jobs, add to government revenue and make a positive impact on economic growth. The findings drew criticism and often bitter attacks from activists opposed to hydraulic fracturing.

On February 24, he spoke at a post-Budget presentation co-hosted by Business Report.

Twine is survived by his wife Marilyn. His funeral will be held at 2.30pm on Thursday at the Johannesburg Country Club, Auckland Park.

“Mr Twine made a valuable contribution to the development
of policies in several government departments and was part of a team that
drafted South Africa’s
energy policies,” Gordhan said in a statement.

Twine, 57, died on Sunday in Milpark hospital, following a heart
attack last week.

He was economist and director at Econometrix. Gordhan extended
his condolences to Twine’s family, friends and colleagues.

“The National Treasury valued his insight on such issues as
international ratings agencies, the automobile industry, petroleum markets and
various aspects of litigation and competition law economics,” Gordhan
said.

“As an eminent researcher and senior economist at
Econometrix, his widely-published opinions in international media helped to
form positive views of South Africa
by investors.”

Two weeks ago, Twine released a report on the positive economic
implications of the proposed Karoo shale gas
exploration, commissioned by Shell.

Twine matriculated from Pinelands
High School and graduated from UCT,
according to the Econometrix website. He studied at the University
of SA while working for Mobil Oil
Southern Africa, where he worked extensively on demand models for gasoline and
diesel.

He joined Datsun Nissan, where he worked as senior economist and
market research manager.

Twine joined Econometrix in 1983, and became a director in 1986.

This is according to Dr Danie Vermeulen, director of the Institute for Groundwater Studies, at the University of the Free State.

Vermeulen said he was not calling for the moratorium to be lifted at the end of the month but for exploration in the Karoo to be allowed.

“Drilling has to take place to determine if there is enough water in the Karoo for fracking [to be practicable],” Vermeulen told the SA Council for Natural Scientific Professions in Midrand yesterday.

“We can’t [merely] say that we have enough water in the Karoo – we have to prove it.

“We are using outdated figures from the 1970s.”

Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu imposed the moratorium in April; it expires at the end of this month .

Vermeulen, who has studied fracking and visited fracking sites in the US, said: “Even academics in the US differ on the issue.

“Too little is known about fracking and there is so much contradictory information. The public doesn’t know what to believe.”

Vermeulen said it was not known what effect fracking in the Karoo would have on dolerite rock.

“Dolerite is a very hard rock that could leak natural gas. It is not present anywhere else in the world where fracking happens,” he said.

He said the jury was still out on the number of jobs fracking in the Karoo would create.

Economics consultancy Econometrix recently released a report that said fracking in the Karoo could create 300000 to 700000 permanent jobs in the next two decades.

A 2011 report on fracking commissioned by the New York state government said that 12 full-time workers would be needed for each borehole in the first nine years of construction and exploration.

IT may very well prove fruitful for Bonang Mohale, Shell SA
chairperson, that the “only thing that matters are my beautiful wife Susan and
our two daughters, Tshepiso and Maneo”.

If the only thing that mattered was how the public perceived
him, he would either have to prepare for a life of misery as he lives with
public ridicule or develop into an insufferable sod as a consequence of social
adoration.

Mohale is the face and voice of controversial shale gas or
hydraulic fracturing – the process of extracting natural gas from underground
sources in South Africa.

If Mohale and the numbers he and his company are presenting
are to be believed, South Africa is on the cusp of wealth unprecedented since
the discovery of gold in Johannesburg in the 1880s.

He will be the man to thank if hundreds of thousands who are
hopeless and jobless find the jobs envisaged by Shell – if their numbers and
predictions prove correct.

If he and economic consultancy Econometrix are wrong, he
will be cursed by all for being the man under whose watch Shell was allowed to
destroy a delicate and pristine ecological space for no more than a fistful of
dollars.

Either way, the name Bonang Mohale is bound to be mentioned
a good number of times when the story of corporate SA’s dedication to
profitable businesses with respect to green issues is told.

The sheer size of the potential promised by hydraulic
fracturing makes Mohale careful to manage expectations even of the hopeful.

“An Econometrix study shows that the potential economic
impact that if you develop 20 trillion cubic feet (tcf) (out of a possible
total 485 tcf) will contribute R80bn or 3.3% (or R35bn) to annual GDP
contribution. Up to 300 000 people could be employed.

“At 50 tcf, the number (economic impact) jumps to R200bn
added to the South African economy and R90bn to the GDP.”

The former Black Management Forum national deputy president
is convinced that Shell has the support of the majority of citizens of the
Karoo towns directly affected by fracking. He points out that 73% of the people
polled want Shell to proceed with the exploration.

“The day that 50 million South Africans say they do not want
us to explore gas in that area is the day that we will pack our bags and go.
Not when it is a minority.”

Not that there is anything inherently wrong with the
minority. “Environmentalists that are opposed to this are a necessary part of
this democracy. They have a critical role to play in keeping organisations like
ours, that are already doing good work, better,” says Mohale.

The advantage of big organisations such as Shell, he reckons,
is that they have a reputation to uphold and will therefore not jump ship at
the first sign of trouble.

He points to how BP handled the disaster in the Gulf of
Mexico in 2010 as an example of how companies with a reputation are able to
face up to their responsibilities and pay penalties for the error of their ways
“and continue to thrive”.

He dismisses the view that his company bandies the jobs
numbers about to bamboozle the jobless but hide the negative environmental
impact fracking has.

“History has taught us that the rural and poor of our
forebears have always had the most amazing respect for the sustainability of
the environment.

“This is not only in literature but also in the idioms and
axiomatic expressions. There is an African proverb that says ‘the beginning of
wisdom is to plant a tree whose shade you will not enjoy’; the proverb o seke
wa nyela sediba warning against defecating in a well because you might one day
need to return to drink from it, all speak about issues of sustainability that is
critical to development and survival of species.

Besides, the Karoo Shale Gas Community Forum gave Shell
three conditions before it could give its unqualified support.

“They said to us, just because we are poor doesn’t mean we
have no regard for the delicate and pristine nature of the Karoo. They said ‘we
don’t want to compete for water with you.

“We want you to consider piping water from elsewhere to your
drilling sites so that we too could have piped water closer to where we live.”

The third condition is that Shell consider employing labour
intensive programmes rather than rely entirely on the technology that the
company has at its disposal.

Shell says it will respond once government has made a
decision on licensing.

Cynics and the optimists will all have to wait for the
government decision to see whether Mohale’s outlook on life will herald a false
dawn or a new day for South Africa.

– City Press

Pretoria — Water and Environmental Affairs Minister Edna Molewa has called on the public to comment on the department’s intention to include certain land as part of the country’s eight national parks.

Molewa last week published for public comment the notice in the government gazette under the National Environmental Management: Protected Areas Act.

The eight national parks affected by the notice include the Tankwa Karoo, Camdeboo, Mountain Zebra, Namaqua, West Coast, Karoo, Table Mountain and Addo Elephant National Parks.

The South African National Parks (SANParks) obtained the approval from the former Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Marthinus van Schalkwyk to acquire land for inclusion in the eight national parks listed above.

Consequently, SANParks acquired the land to be part of the national parks listed above and concluded a Notarial Lease Agreement.

The land to be included is as follows:

– The land, intended to be part of the Tankwa Karoo National Park, includes portions 1 of the farms Drie Fontein No.8, Leeuw Kloof No.114 and Lange Kloof No.60. The remainder of the farms, Mosquito Kolk No.10, Paarde Kloof No.113 and Leeuw No.114 as well as the farm Paarde Kraal No.4, portion 2 of Leeuw Kloof No.114 and portion 4 of Kleinfontein will also form part of the Tankwa Karoo National Park, 22 501.40ha.

– The Karoo National Park is intended to include portions 5, 6 and the remainder of the farm Klipplaats Fontein No.210 and portions 2 of the farms Afsaal No.302 and Alwynsgat No.187 as well as portion 5 of the farm Hendriks Kraal No.298, portion 4 of the farm Grootfontein No.180, portion 10 of the farm Brandewyns Ghat No.214, the remainder of the farm Brand Kraal No.209 and farm No.202, 10 917.31ha.

– Camdeboo National Park is intended to include farms Nos. 271-272 and Annex Winterhoek No.336, the remainders of Winterhoek No.269 and Annex Corndale No.335, portion 3 of Pienaars Rivier No.208 and portion 4 of Grasrand No.334, 4 489.71ha.

– Land intended to form part of Mountain Zebra National Park include farms No.372 and Toekoms No.567, 3 236.15ha.

– The West Coast National Park is intended to include the remainders of the farms Groote Fontyn No.305 and of portion 3 of Elandsfontyn No.349, 3 361.75ha.

– Land intended to form part of the Namaqua National Park comprise of the remainder of portion 1 of the farm Kanoep No.491 and the remainder of the farms Annex Kanoep No.490 as well as Avontuur No.488 and Diknek No.486, portion 1 of the farm Diknek No.486, portion 7 of the farm Kwoap No.494 and the farm Ghaams No. 492, 9 868.17ha.

– Land intended to form part of the Table Mountain National Park comprise of Erf No. 557 Sea Point East, remainder of portion 10 (Kompanjiestuin) (a portion of portion 2) of farm Kommetjie Estate No. 948 and remaining extent of the farm Olifantsbosch No. 1056 as well as remainder of Erf 90197 and Erf 90239 Cape Town at Kalk Bay, 357mý.

– Addo Elephant National Park is intended to include Portion 305 and 279 of the farm Strathsomers Estate No. 42, Farm No. 416 and Portion 2 of the farm Bloukrans No. 23 as well as portion 8 ( a portion of portion 5) of the farm Coerney, 165.91ha.

Adhering to the consultation process, approval will be sought from the Ministers of Public Works, Rural Development and Land Reform, Transport and Mineral Resources.

Where applicable, the MECs of Local Government, MEC of Environment and Nature Conservation in the Northern Cape, Environmental Affairs and Development Planning in the Western Cape, MEC of Economic Development, Environment Affairs and Tourism in the Eastern Cape and affected Mayors in the Provinces will also be invited to indicate whether they concur or not with the proposed declaration of listed land.

Interested and affected parties are invited to submit written comments to the minister within 60 days of publication of the notice in the Gazette. Comments received after 60 days will not be considered.

Written comments or inputs can be delivered by hand, mail, email or telefax transmission.

Submissions by post to can be directed to: The Director-General: Environmental Affairs, Attention: Ms S Jhupsee. Private Bag X447, Pretoria, 0001 or by fax to: 012 322 7114 or 012 320 1243 or by email to smampe@environment.gov.za or hand delivered at: 315 Pretorius Street, corner Pretorius and Van Der Walt streets, Fedsure Forum Building, 2nd Floor, North Tower.

Only a week after the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the SA Ostrich Business Chamber and the EU met to restore credibility to the South African ostrich meat industry, South Africa’s ostrich exports to the EU was dealt a blow when six birds tested positive for avian influenza in Oudtshoorn in the Klein Karoo, Business Report says.

Last year, Ostrich meat exports to Europe were banned as well. Before this ban, exports stood at R108 million.

Business Day reported that a fresh positive test result for the H5N2 avian flu virus in the Klein Karoo has dashed hope the industry could resume trade this month with the European Union (EU), its biggest ostrich export market. Positive results were found on a farm near De Rust, east of Oudtshoorn, in an area that had previously been virus-free. South African Ostrich Business Chamber interim CEO Piet Kleyn said yesterday (Tuesday) that the test result came after the eighth round of tests in February since the virus was first detected on a farm near Oudtshoorn in April last year.

The Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries spokesman Selby Bokaba told Business Report that experts at the workshop believed that the industry had to be restructured for sustainability. However, the Western Cape Department of Agriculture said it would need about a year to put in place recommendations made by an EU delegation to South Africa, including restricting the birds’ movements and disinfecting trucks to abattoirs.

Why Shell’s Econometrix report is flawed (Scepticism over Shell’s Karoo gas report, March 7). The report has three major flaws:

— It doesn’t indicate how it came to a well-head price of $8 per million cubic feet (MCF), which is not the same as end-user price. The methodology for arriving at this number is rather mysterious because we don’t know whether it includes the cost of environmental mitigation, and other costs. This needs unpacking and the report is not transparent as to how the well-head cost is arrived at. The entire edifice of the Shell report sits on the basic assumptions made about well-head and other costs.

— Even if we assume a well-head price of $8/MCF as being reasonable, it’s only half of the story. This is really the nub of the problem and at the heart of the report’s exaggerated figures. The study does not take into account infrastructure development costs and surcharges for distribution. These costs would be an add-on to the $8 and we would arrive at a true end-user cost. These costs are missing. These costs will have to be defrayed either by consumers or the government. This is why the report is disingenuous and deceptive. It describes well Shell’s handsome turnover but says little about what the end user will pay or suffer. These end-user figures will tell us, at certain price ranges for different uses of gas, the level of market absorption and the rate at which people will switch to gas. If it is cheaper we will possibly get greater market penetration and local beneficiation. If it is more, the market will be undeveloped compared with other energy sources.

— This leads us to the third problem with the report. It is likely that if the price is not right we will need very long lead times for a domestic shale market to develop, because somebody has to outlay huge amounts of capital for infrastructure and storage for gas, Shell and other gas producers will feel all the incentive to export the gas. Guess what will happen next if we have a very large reserve: lots of dollars will flow, the rand will strengthen and you can be sure our other exports and jobs will be destroyed. We will catch the Royal Dutch disease, to use the pun.

The report tells us more about Shell’s and other producers’ windfalls, but for local beneficiation the report is an analytical mess, if not a scandal.

Saliem Fakir

Head of Living Planet Unit, WWF-SA